“The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2104-01-01

• gwern estimated 60% on 2010-07-30
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/137” on 2010-07-30
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2011-05-24
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-10-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 54% on 2016-10-07
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2104-01-01” and changed their prediction from ““The Long Bets Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.”” on 2017-05-23
• Tenobrus estimated 30% on 2017-11-09
• pranomostro estimated 40% on 2018-09-02
• Baeboo estimated 55% on 2018-09-03
• Selentelechia estimated 55% on 2018-11-13
• deleteyourbrain estimated 100% on 2019-04-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 75% on 2021-04-05
• Baeboo estimated 80% on 2021-04-07