Anti-obesity drug Qnexa will be denied FDA approval (or delayed).

Created by dakyne on 2010-07-30; known on 2010-10-28; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-29.

• dakyne estimated 90% on 2010-07-30
• dakyne changed the deadline from “on 2010-10-28” and changed their prediction from “Anti-obesity drug Qnexa will be denied FDA approval (or delayed),” on 2010-07-30
• gwern estimated 80% and said “http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-16/vivus-plunges-most-ever-after-u-s-review-of-qnexa.html birth defects, ouch” on 2010-07-30
• dakyne said “When an AC panel votes no, the FDA rejects 98% of the time. Because obesity is a huge problem, I boosted their chances to 10%.” on 2010-07-30
• gwern said “rejected: http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/content/view/45054/ marking prediction right” on 2010-10-29
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2010-10-29.