“If the next president of the USA will be a democrat and/or a female, the US's anual GPD growth, major Wall Street share indices (Dow Jones, NASDAQ comp.) by the end of the term in 2012 will be higher, unemployment rate lower than now. The death toll of U

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2010-07-31
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/211” on 2010-07-31
• HonoreDB said “Unemployment rate’s the only miss here, looks like.” on 2013-01-01
• RandomThinker said “Yea pretty good prediction, unfortunately, he started in 2005, and the baseline dipped quite a bit before the democrat prez went in” on 2013-01-03
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-03.