“By 2012, scientists will have announced a cure for breast cancer and mastectomies will have become almost obsolete”
- gwern estimated 2% on 2010-07-31
- gwern said “It would be very irresponsible to ann a cure w/o clinical trials, and those take years…” on 2010-07-31
- Larks estimated 2% on 2011-01-01
- Konkvistador estimated 0% on 2011-07-21
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.
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