“By 2012, scientists will have announced a cure for breast cancer and mastectomies will have become almost obsolete”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• gwern estimated 2% on 2010-07-31
• gwern said “It would be very irresponsible to ann a cure w/o clinical trials, and those take years…” on 2010-07-31
• Larks estimated 2% on 2011-01-01
• Konkvistador estimated 0% on 2011-07-21
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.