“By 2012, scientists will have announced a cure for breast cancer and mastectomies will have become almost obsolete”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 2% on 2010-07-31
  • gwern said “It would be very irresponsible to ann a cure w/o clinical trials, and those take years…on 2010-07-31
  • Larks estimated 2% on 2011-01-01
  • Konkvistador estimated 0% on 2011-07-21
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.

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