“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2030-01-01

• gwern estimated 10% on 2010-07-31
• gwern said “As much as I’d like to put 0 on this, a good world war could do this.” on 2010-07-31
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2011-10-10
• Sniffnoy estimated 1% on 2011-10-10
• Malgidus estimated 8% and said “Unless the Internet “wakes up”” on 2013-03-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2013-03-28
• RandomThinker estimated 15% on 2013-03-28
• simplicio estimated 5% on 2013-03-28
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% and said “Noting that this still rounds to 5% but with probability moved downward slightly. ” on 2016-02-21
• kuudes said “How will this be judged? Technically UN already can wield legal authority, it just never has that much unanimity (basicly UNSC + General Assembly in supermajority can do legally about anything). I suppose the prediction is after some public measure?” on 2016-02-21
• themusicgod1 estimated 34% and said “Judging this is going to be a bitch, but it’s coming from a variety of angles, and 2030 is about the right time frame. But it will likely lead to world war and I don’t think that’s likely. Hrm.” on 2016-05-13
• themusicgod1 estimated 39% on 2016-05-13
• pranomostro estimated 12% on 2018-12-20
• pranomostro estimated 5% on 2019-01-14
• Baeboo estimated 5% on 2019-01-15