North Korea to conduct a nuclear test in 2013.

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-12.

• simplicio estimated 50% on 2013-01-24
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2013-01-25
• RandomThinker estimated 55% on 2013-01-25
• gwern estimated 45% and said “worth remembering they have made many threats and only 2 actual tests” on 2013-01-26
• Tuxedage estimated 43% on 2013-01-27
• moridinamael estimated 50% on 2013-02-06
• JoshuaZ said “Well, that didn’t take very long. ” on 2013-02-12
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2013-02-12.
• gwern said “http://www.cnn.com/2013/02/11/world/asia/north-korea-seismic-disturbance/index.html http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_c000f5t0_h.html” on 2013-02-12