“There will be a quantum computer with over 100 qubits of processing capability sold either as a hardware system or whose use is made available as a commercial service by Dec 31, 2010”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2010-08-01
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/266” on 2010-08-01
• gwern said “I follow Scott Aaronson’s skepticism about dwave” on 2010-08-01
• Larks estimated 1% on 2010-09-29
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-12-30.