“By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2025-01-01

• gwern estimated 60% on 2010-08-01
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/270” on 2010-08-01
• gwern said “Either Linux wins, or cloud computing wins – and clouds (like Google’s!) are usually hosted on a Unix…” on 2010-08-01
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 66% and said “How “open” does an OS have to be to be open source? Is Android “open source”?” on 2011-10-10
• Pablo estimated 35% and said “It will happen eventually, but not likely by 2025.” on 2012-10-01
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 20% on 2019-01-14
• Baeboo estimated 35% on 2019-01-15
• deleteyourbrain estimated 100% on 2019-04-26