“I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2100-01-01

• gwern estimated 70% on 2010-08-01
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/283” on 2010-08-01
• army1987 said “Define “our civilization”. I guess my grandchildren would be alive by then, but life’s gonna be quite different” on 2011-10-03
• Anubhav estimated 60% on 2011-10-10
• Anubhav estimated 80% and said “Reevaluated probability of apocalypse.” on 2011-10-10
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 75% on 2011-10-10
• JoshuaZ estimated 90% on 2011-10-11
• Isaac estimated 85% on 2011-10-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 92% and said “More confident. ” on 2011-10-17
• pranomostro estimated 45% on 2019-01-14
• deleteyourbrain estimated 100% on 2019-04-26