“By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known in 10 days

• gwern estimated 30% on 2010-08-01
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/284” on 2010-08-01
• Grognor estimated 2% and said “the conjunction of two unlikely events makes it prima facie incredible” on 2011-12-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2012-04-25
• RandomThinker estimated 3% on 2012-04-25
• themusicgod1 estimated 11% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 5% on 2019-01-14