“By 2020, historians will agree that the the start of the 21st century also marked the beginning of the “Second” or “New Renaissance.””

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/295” on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “Historians never agree on anything, and standing here, doesn’t look like 2000-2010 was very impressive…” on 2010-08-02
• Larks estimated 1% on 2010-09-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2011-05-24
• Anubhav estimated 0% on 2011-10-12
• pranomostro estimated 1% on 2019-01-13
• Baeboo estimated 0% on 2019-01-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2019-01-13
• Baeboo estimated 1% on 2019-01-13
• Pablo estimated 0% and said “hahaha” on 2019-12-31
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.