“China will break apart by 2030”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-01-01

• gwern estimated 40% on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/297” on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “By 2030, China will have completed the aging shift, placing great stress on its social net. But also, the youth bulge will have to have been absorbed by then..” on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “see also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1933 & http://www.longbets.org/588” on 2010-11-07
• Malgidus estimated 20% and said “It could happen, but a multi-thousand year nation falling apart, hmm.” on 2013-03-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2013-03-28
• RandomThinker estimated 11% on 2013-03-28
• simplicio estimated 30% and said “Maldigus: it doesn’t have to totally fall apart to count. If Tibet leaves, this prediction will be true.” on 2013-03-28
• seifip estimated 50% on 2013-04-14
• Tuxedage said “How are you defining ‘breaking apart’” on 2013-04-14
• Tuxedage said “The dissolvement of the Chinese Government?” on 2013-04-14
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 10% on 2016-01-19
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 10% on 2019-01-13
• Baeboo estimated 10% on 2019-01-13