“Turkey will join the European Union and become a model for a Democratic Islamic State and lead the way for advancing relations between the Islamic world and “Western World””

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/312” on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “I’m choosing to interpret this solely as ‘Turkey will join the EU’ as the rest is hopelessly vague.” on 2010-08-02
• seifip estimated 80% on 2013-04-14
• themusicgod1 estimated 5% on 2016-10-07
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-11-10.