“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01

• gwern estimated 40% on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/317” on 2010-08-02
• Larks estimated 50% on 2010-09-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 30% on 2011-05-24
• Ken estimated 35% on 2011-09-12
• Anubhav estimated 30% on 2011-11-18
• kilobug estimated 50% on 2011-11-18
• Sarokrae estimated 30% on 2011-12-30
• faws estimated 56% on 2011-12-30
• Pablo estimated 50% on 2012-10-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% and said “Updating. ” on 2012-10-02
• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-10-02
• Michael Dickens estimated 25% on 2013-06-16
• nshepperd estimated 70% on 2014-09-08
• PseudonymousUser estimated 40% on 2015-06-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% and said “Making consistent with other predictions. ” on 2015-08-06
• Medea estimated 40% on 2015-10-14
• NathanMcKnight estimated 40% on 2015-12-07
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-10-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 24% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 60% on 2018-12-20
• JoshuaZ estimated 28% on 2018-12-20
• pranomostro estimated 55% on 2019-01-13
• Baeboo estimated 30% on 2019-01-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 28% on 2019-01-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 26% on 2020-07-11
• Baeboo estimated 25% on 2020-07-11
• Leo estimated 80% and said “I expect one-way settling but not manned round-trips.” on 2021-12-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 24% on 2021-12-04