“No substantial departure from the standard model of elementary particle physics will be discovered in experiments by the year 2015. `Substantial' departures include supersymmetry, extra dimensions of space-time, techni-color models of Higgs bosons, and c

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.

• gwern estimated 90% on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/328” on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “The Standard Model is very well supported, the LHC is unlikely to find anything new, and 2015 is not far away.” on 2010-08-02
• mfb estimated 97% and said “No new data will be taken, and the most promising channels are analyzed by now. I would count unexplained deviations in electroweak physics as “substantial” as well, but those are not included in the prediction.” on 2013-08-31
• JoshuaZ estimated 85% on 2013-08-31
• JoshuaZ said “Certainly anomalies exist but none and it may turn out that some of them were hints of this, but that’s not the same thing. Marking correct. ” on 2015-01-01
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2015-01-01.