Hilary Clinton will not be running for President in the 2016 Presidential Election

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

• Peter Hurford estimated 70% on 2013-01-30
• Benja estimated 50% on 2013-01-30
• simplicio said “What’s the reasoning?” on 2013-01-30
• Tuxedage estimated 15% on 2013-01-31
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2013-01-31
• lavalamp estimated 38% on 2013-01-31
• gwern said “duplicate: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/8162” on 2013-01-31
• faul_sname estimated 70% on 2013-02-02
• moridinamael estimated 80% on 2013-02-06
• najdorf estimated 25% on 2013-02-06
• adam_strandberg estimated 10% on 2013-02-09
• Tuxedage estimated 25% on 2013-02-09
• dusk estimated 70% on 2013-02-10
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.