China will land a man on Mars by 2050.

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01

• gwern estimated 60% on 2010-08-02
• gwern estimated 30% on 2010-08-02
• Larks estimated 40% on 2010-09-29
• Ken estimated 55% on 2011-09-12
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% and said “Wikipedia says the plan is “[…] a crewed phase in 2040-2060” but this prediction is dependent on no early singularity, China existing in a similar form, people still being interested in landing people on planets” on 2011-09-13
• gimpf estimated 50% on 2011-09-13
• JoshuaZ said “Is this meant to include China landing people as part of an international mission that they take part in? ” on 2011-11-17
• JoshuaZ said “That is, is this prediction fulfilled only if they go it alone? ” on 2011-11-17
• seifip estimated 15% on 2013-04-14
• NathanMcKnight estimated 45% on 2015-12-07
• PseudonymousUser estimated 45% on 2016-01-17
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 40% on 2019-01-13
• Baeboo estimated 32% on 2019-01-13
• PseudonymousUser estimated 90% on 2019-02-25