“Immortal mice by 2015”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

• gwern estimated 15% on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/339” on 2010-08-02
• gimpf estimated 5% on 2010-12-12
• Grognor estimated 4% on 2011-12-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2012-04-25
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 1% on 2012-04-26
• PseudonymousUser said ““The longest lived laboratory mouse ever was a Ghr knockout mouse on caloric restriction, which lived to ~1800 days in the lab of Andrzej Bartke at Southern Illinois University.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_life_span” on 2015-01-01
• PseudonymousUser said “No signs of immortal mice on Google” on 2015-01-01
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-01.