LSD microdosing experiment: pair 14: placebo then active?

Created by gwern on 2013-01-31; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-31.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2013-01-31
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2013-01-31.
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2013-01-31” and made the prediction on 2013-10-16