“Self-replicating manufacturing machines will be commonplace by 2020.”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/345” on 2010-08-02
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-07
• Athrithalix estimated 12% on 2018-02-22
• davatk estimated 3% on 2018-05-01
• pranomostro estimated 2% on 2019-01-13
• Baeboo estimated 2% on 2019-01-13
• Pablo estimated 0% on 2019-12-31
• Bruno Parga said “Reprap is a thing https://reprap.org/wiki/RepRap . Does it count as commonplace?” on 2020-01-01
• Bruno Parga said “Updating towards marking it as wrong based on gwern’s arguments on Long Bets.” on 2020-01-01
• gwern said “RepRap is neither self-replicating (where do the circuits come from?) nor commonplace.” on 2020-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.