“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2035-01-01

• gwern estimated 10% on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/351” on 2010-08-02
• JoshuaZ estimated 48% on 2011-11-17
• Anubhav estimated 15% on 2011-11-18
• kilobug estimated 25% on 2011-11-18
• Pablo estimated 12% and said “Gwern’s estimate seems hard to defend in light of his estimate here: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1892” on 2012-10-02
• Jayson Virissimo said “You think that’s a little off? My probability estimates are NOT EVEN CLOSE to being coherent.” on 2012-10-02
• RandomThinker estimated 15% on 2012-10-02
• gwern said “Benthamite: good point, I’ll update the other.” on 2012-10-02
• Medea estimated 20% on 2015-10-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2015-10-14
• danielfilan estimated 33% on 2015-10-14
• NathanMcKnight estimated 50% and said “Does a mission that fails en route count? What about one that fails on launch? What about one that makes it to Mars, but crashes? ” on 2015-12-07
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2016-01-14
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 10% on 2016-01-14
• PseudonymousUser estimated 55% on 2016-01-17
• themusicgod1 estimated 58% on 2016-04-30
• JoshuaZ said “Recent plans by SpaceX raise a potential issue that might have previously been a very low probability edge case: do agencies only include governments? Do private corporations count? The Longbet doesn’t really make it clear. ” on 2016-04-30
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-07
• themusicgod1 estimated 56% and said “oh i’m on this one already. hrm” on 2016-10-07
• Athrithalix estimated 55% on 2018-02-22
• davatk estimated 22% on 2018-05-01
• pranomostro estimated 60% on 2018-12-20
• pranomostro estimated 25% on 2019-01-13
• pranomostro estimated 45% on 2019-01-13
• Baeboo estimated 38% on 2019-01-13
• NickN estimated 0% on 2020-08-16