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“By 2018 the € will not be the legal currency of France, Italy and Germany.”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.

  • gwern estimated 2% on 2010-08-02
  • gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/363” on 2010-08-02
  • Larks estimated 5% on 2010-09-30
  • gimpf estimated 5% on 2010-12-12
  • gimpf estimated 3% on 2010-12-12
  • Ken estimated 1% on 2011-09-10
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 66% and said “The wording of this prediction means that just one of these countries moving off the Euro would make it ‘Right’. Combined with current debt levels and the base rate for currency union failure, it’s not looking good for the Euro.” on 2011-09-10
  • PseudonymousUser said “Ready to bet 2018 money of this, if you 1%ers want to…” on 2011-09-10
  • gwern said “Eh? One nation only is not correct. What part of ‘and’ don’t you understand?” on 2011-09-10
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 50% and said “I read it as “I read it as By 2018 the € will not be the legal currency of (France, Italy and Germany).” but since it’s your prediction…” on 2011-09-11
  • gwern said “…and by your reading, that’s only true if all 3 countries abandon the Euro, which is exactly what I wrote (one false value in an AND yields overall false). whatever.” on 2011-09-11
  • PseudonymousUser said “your reading is: Euro will not be the legal currency of France && Euro will not be legal currency of Italy; my reading was: Euro will not (be the legal currency of France, be the legal currency of Italy…)” on 2011-09-11
  • PseudonymousUser said “To see why I like my reading better, replace “and” with “or” at the end, which would be a more common way to write your intended meaning.” on 2011-09-11
  • JFE estimated 85% on 2011-11-01
  • najdorf estimated 1% on 2013-02-06
  • Tuxedage estimated 2% on 2013-02-07
  • JoshuaZ estimated 11% on 2013-02-07
  • sdr estimated 1% on 2013-02-24
  • hedges estimated 1% on 2013-04-03
  • ​ said “gwern, if you remove the word “not”, then “the € will be the legal currency of F, I and G” requires all 3 states. The negation of that statement requires at least 1 states without the €. Your arrogance was miscalibrated. :)” on 2014-02-02
  • themusicgod1 estimated 6% on 2016-10-07
  • PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2018-01-01.