“By the end of the 2016 Olympic Games, swimmer Michael Phelps will be convicted for doping at the 2008 Olympic Games.”
- gwern estimated 20% on 2010-08-02
- gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/409” on 2010-08-02
- themusicgod1 said “not sure how to trigger a claim judgements on longbets but this didn’t happen” on 2016-10-07
- themusicgod1 judged this prediction wrong on 2016-10-07.
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