“By the end of the 2016 Olympic Games, swimmer Michael Phelps will be convicted for doping at the 2008 Olympic Games.”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-07.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/409” on 2010-08-02
• themusicgod1 said “not sure how to trigger a claim judgements on longbets but this didn’t happen” on 2016-10-07
• themusicgod1   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-10-07.