“By 2025, The Aether Physics Model will not have replaced quantum physics and the theory of relativity as the standard model.”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01

• gwern estimated 100% on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/432” on 2010-08-02
• themusicgod1 estimated 100% on 2016-03-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 100% on 2016-03-16
• pranomostro estimated 99% on 2019-01-13
• pranomostro said “Somebody paid 50$ to make this prediction.” on 2019-01-13
• Baeboo estimated 100% on 2019-01-13