China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2023-01-02.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2013-02-08
• Tuxedage estimated 1% on 2013-02-08
• moridinamael estimated 0% on 2013-02-08
• Qiaochu estimated 1% on 2013-02-09
• simplicio estimated 4% on 2013-02-09
• halfwaytogallifrey estimated 60% on 2013-02-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2013-02-11
• Yvain estimated 5% on 2013-02-13
• Houshalter estimated 2% on 2013-02-15
• Tuxedage said “Jesus christ guys, those are insanely high probability estimates.” on 2013-02-15
• Jayson Virissimo said “It’s possible I’m giving to much weight to Japanese newspapers. On the other hand, the Senkaku Islands could heat up and the whole China/North Korea/Japan nexus creates lots of tension.” on 2013-02-17
• gwern estimated 6% on 2013-02-17
• procran estimated 5% on 2013-02-18
• ChristianKl estimated 3% on 2013-02-18
• Felix estimated 5% on 2013-02-19
• PaulS estimated 5% on 2013-02-25
• PseudonymousUser estimated 6% on 2013-02-26
• themusicgod1 estimated 42% on 2016-04-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2016-04-15
• Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2016-07-09
• pranomostro estimated 2% on 2018-09-02
• Baeboo estimated 2% on 2018-09-03
• pranomostro estimated 2% on 2018-12-08
• deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26
• n99 estimated 0% on 2022-10-28
• Jayson Virissimo   judged this prediction wrong on 2023-01-02.