China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-08; known on 2023-01-01

  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2013-02-08
  • Tuxedage estimated 1% on 2013-02-08
  • moridinamael estimated 0% on 2013-02-08
  • Qiaochu estimated 1% on 2013-02-09
  • simplicio estimated 4% on 2013-02-09
  • halfwaytogallifrey estimated 60% on 2013-02-11
  • JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2013-02-11
  • Yvain estimated 5% on 2013-02-13
  • Houshalter estimated 2% on 2013-02-15
  • Tuxedage said “Jesus christ guys, those are insanely high probability estimates.on 2013-02-15
  • Jayson Virissimo said “It’s possible I’m giving to much weight to Japanese newspapers. On the other hand, the Senkaku Islands could heat up and the whole China/North Korea/Japan nexus creates lots of tension.on 2013-02-17
  • gwern estimated 6% on 2013-02-17
  • procran estimated 5% on 2013-02-18
  • ChristianKl estimated 3% on 2013-02-18
  • Felix estimated 5% on 2013-02-19
  • PaulS estimated 5% on 2013-02-25
  • bobpage estimated 6% on 2013-02-26
  • themusicgod1 estimated 42% on 2016-04-15
  • JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2016-04-15
  • Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2016-07-09
  • pranomostro estimated 2% on 2018-09-02
  • Baeboo estimated 2% on 2018-09-03
  • pranomostro estimated 2% on 2018-12-08
  • deleteyourbrain estimated 0% on 2019-04-26

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