“A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism.”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-01-01

• gwern estimated 50% on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/521” on 2010-08-02
• themusicgod1 estimated 46% on 2016-10-07
• regex estimated 35% on 2017-09-22
• davatk estimated 23% on 2018-04-26
• pranomostro estimated 30% on 2019-01-13