“By the end of 2011 it will be clear that the world financial crisis of 2009 had no effect on the rate of urbanization in the developing world, but it led to growth of the informal economy in those countries and to increases in global crime.”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-12-31

• gwern estimated 30% on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “I think it’s true, but I’m not sure about the timescale of this being discovered and becoming academic consensus” on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “too vague to judge, withdrawing. shouldn’t’ve made this one” on 2012-01-14
• gwern withdrew the prediction on 2012-01-14