“California state government will dissolve in default.”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “California is too big to default that quickly, if it’s even legally allowed to do so.” on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/488” on 2010-08-02
• anonym estimated 4% on 2010-11-27
• gimpf estimated 10% on 2010-12-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2011-01-04
• Isaac estimated 10% on 2011-12-11
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2011-12-12
• Tiresias estimated 0% on 2011-12-20
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.