“By 2014 Twitter like products coupled with person mounted video cameras will allow people to lifecast every moment of their daily experience. Others in the community of users will be able to subscribe to the lives of those they wish to follow.”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-01-05.

• gwern estimated 55% on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/480” on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “I’m more optimistic on the other one because it’s so much less demanding – this wants live broadcast, twitter integration, a community…” on 2010-08-02
• kallman estimated 50% and said “Bandwidth! On an individual basis sure, but as a whole activity Thing thing?” on 2010-11-23
• Grognor estimated 21% on 2011-12-06
• saturn estimated 2% and said “There should be some popularity threshold, otherwise this could already be judged true (e.g. justin.tv, Steve Mann).” on 2011-12-11
• Anubhav said “Uh no, it doesn’t need Twitter integration or live broadcast. (Unless I’m missing something…) And I second saturn; threshold required.” on 2011-12-11
• Anubhav estimated 10% and said “Assuming a threshold of ‘1 million lifecasts’.” on 2011-12-11
• Anubhav said “If this is already A Thing, I haven’t heard of it.” on 2014-01-05
• Anubhav   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-05.