“By 2015 more internet requests will originate from mobile phones and other types of embedded devices than from desktop and laptop personal computers.”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-21.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “People do all their bittorrenting from desktops…” on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/479” on 2010-08-02
• Grognor estimated 30% on 2011-12-06
• Pablo estimated 40% on 2015-01-14
• Pablo said “Oh, I misread the prediction and assumed this would be judged at the end, not the beginning, of 2015.” on 2015-01-14
• RandomThinker said “Hard to say, but according to statcounter, mobile usage is at 34% vs. desktop at 65%. http://gs.statcounter.com/#desktop” on 2015-01-21
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-21.
• RandomThinker said “Although this was a commonly predicted thing in 2013/2014, based on old graphs:http://visual.ly/mobile-internet-taking-over-desktop-usageThe graphs were already outdated by the time they were used to support the claim.” on 2015-01-21