“By 2013 eBay will either (1) rename itself Paypal, or (2) spin Paypal out.”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/467” on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “it seems like a good idea: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/18/business/18views.html” on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “but good idea or not, they haven’t done it although they’ve finally gotten rid of Skype” on 2013-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.