“By 2012, current venture capital- and privately-funded methods of DNA sequencing, independent of any additional “incremental improvements” will be made obsolete by the technology described in The Economist (October 25th – 31st 2008; US print edition, p.8

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

• gwern estimated 1% on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/440” on 2010-08-02
• gwern said “The clock is ticking…” on 2010-08-02
• kallman estimated 0% and said ““Described” in an advert, with no peer review, etc etc. Suspicious? Naaaah.” on 2010-11-23
• gwern said “marking wrong. folks like 23andMe are still using the same incremental improvements and approaches as usual” on 2012-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.