“I expect that, at least for the seven lean years and perhaps longer, the developed world will have to settle for about 2% real GDP growth (perhaps 2.25%) down from the 3.5% to which we used to aspire in the last 30 years.” —Jeremy Grantham

Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2016-03-07; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-08.

• gwern estimated 70% on 2010-08-03
• gwern said “ http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetter_1Q09.pdf ” on 2010-08-03
• gwern said “http://wrongtomorrow.com/prediction/id/311” on 2010-08-03
• Raahul_Kumar said “http://www.gurufocus.com/news/141858/jeremy-grantham-quarterly-letter-part-2—what-to-buy” on 2016-02-08
• Raahul_Kumar said “His prediction runs from 2009-2016. Woud you mind editing the prediction to reflect that? What he means by developed world? Since Jeremy didn’t, can you? I assume OECD.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Developed_country” on 2016-02-08
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “OECD total has averaged 1.26% over 2009-16, substantially below his projection of 2-2.25%. Even if another usage of developed world is used, the outcome is the same.” on 2016-02-18
• Raahul_Kumar said “1.21%IMF advanced economies definition” on 2016-03-08
• Raahul_Kumar said “https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/02/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr.x=67&pr.y=11&sy=2009&ey=2020&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=110&s=NGDP_RPCH&grp=1&a=1” on 2016-03-08
• Raahul_Kumar   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-03-08.