Eliezer Yudkowsky to have at least 1 child by 2020

Created by sdr on 2015-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.

• sdr estimated 75% on 2015-10-19
• Hierophant estimated 10% and said “I don’t see it.” on 2015-10-19
• sdr said “https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10153472517224228” on 2015-10-19
• JoshuaZ estimated 42% on 2015-10-19
• Houshalter estimated 20% on 2015-10-19
• gwern estimated 33% on 2015-10-19
• EloiseRosen estimated 2% on 2015-10-19
• btrettel estimated 17% and said “Approximate base rate as of 1995. Data from here: https://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/journals/2715995.html” on 2015-10-20
• danielfilan estimated 10% on 2015-10-20
• Josh Holland estimated 15% on 2015-10-21
• akrasib estimated 28% on 2015-10-22
• timujin estimated 10% on 2015-10-22
• Kuaiyu estimated 25% on 2015-10-22
• sdr estimated 45% and said “Updating on US base rate, thank you btrettel” on 2015-10-23
• Afforess estimated 5% on 2015-10-23
• Andrew MacFie estimated 20% on 2015-10-23
• aarongertler estimated 30% on 2015-10-26
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 10% on 2015-10-27
• ChristianKl estimated 25% on 2015-11-01
• sh estimated 8% and said “Not likely.” on 2015-11-09
• qznc estimated 30% on 2015-11-25
• PseudonymousUser estimated 50% on 2016-01-04
• ioannes estimated 20% on 2016-01-20
• Temeraire estimated 40% on 2016-02-12
• equivrel estimated 40% on 2016-02-14
• artir estimated 17% on 2016-03-13
• Temeraire estimated 25% on 2017-01-19
• Temeraire estimated 21% and said “passage of time” on 2018-01-12
• Temeraire estimated 9% and said “Today’s news” on 2018-03-31
• pranomostro estimated 8% on 2018-11-25
• Baeboo estimated 3% on 2018-11-26
• deleteyourbrain estimated 0% and said “Big Yud is most likely sterile.” on 2019-04-26
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.