“10 or more people will be killed on US soil, or on a flight to or from the US, during 2010 as the result of a deliberate attack by a party with a political goal, not overtly the act of any state”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2010-08-03
• gwern said “Looking at wiki, any year has a 50-50 chance roughly; year is >1/2 over, so >1/2 of 50% is <25%.” on 2010-08-03
• gwern said “from http://lesswrong.com/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/1dsb” on 2010-08-03
• gwern said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Terrorist_incidents_in_the_United_States_in_2010” on 2010-12-30
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2010-12-30.