“EY predicts that no five-sigma evidence of any Higgs boson will appear in the 2014 Review of Particle Physics.”

Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-07-05.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2010-08-03
• gwern said “intrade is pessimistic: http://misunderstoodfinance.blogspot.com/2010/07/intrade-higgs-boson-2013-discovery.html” on 2010-08-03
• gwern said “source of bet: http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Bets_registry & http://lesswrong.com/lw/1dt/open_thread_november_2009/181m” on 2010-08-03
• gwern said “marking wrong since EY seems to have conceded in the linked thread” on 2012-07-05
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-07-05.