“We will find life on Mars within 'the next decade', and discover a 'ubiquitous' bacterial ecosystem.” —Peter Diamandis

Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2010-08-04
• gwern said “and what probe, exactly, would we be doing all this discovering with?” on 2010-08-04
• gwern said “http://wrongtomorrow.com/prediction/id/293 http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/peter_diamandis_on_our_next_giant_leap.html ” on 2010-08-04
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 1% on 2012-04-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2012-04-29
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-10-07
• pranomostro estimated 2% on 2019-01-13
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-01.