Iran will not produce a nuclear bomb before the end of 2010. —Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
- gwern estimated 80% on 2010-08-09
- gwern said “http://wrongtomorrow.com/prediction/id/201 http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_predicts_iran_s_future.html ” on 2010-08-09
- gimpf estimated 95% on 2010-12-12
- gwern said “stuxnet seems to have put a real dent in it; I certainly haven’t heard of iran producing a bomb.” on 2010-12-30
- gwern judged this prediction right on 2010-12-30.
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