Iran will not produce a nuclear bomb before the end of 2010. —Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.

• gwern estimated 80% on 2010-08-09
• gwern said “http://wrongtomorrow.com/prediction/id/201 http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_predicts_iran_s_future.html ” on 2010-08-09
• gimpf estimated 95% on 2010-12-12
• gwern said “stuxnet seems to have put a real dent in it; I certainly haven’t heard of iran producing a bomb.” on 2010-12-30
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2010-12-30.