“[I]t's virtually impossible to imagine taxes on the wealthy [implicitly defined as either income > US$250k or income > US$1m in 2009 dollars] not having been increased substantially by the time Obama's four years in office are up.” —Nate Silver

Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2012-12-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-17.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2010-08-09
• gwern said “http://wrongtomorrow.com/prediction/id/203 http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/04/pick-your-poison-paradox.html ” on 2010-08-09
• gwern said “anyone recall large increases during his first-term? I don’t. marking wrong” on 2012-12-17
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-17.
• RandomThinker said “Nice catch! Don’t let Fox News see this :)” on 2012-12-17