By 2011, no major Iranian faction or political leader will publicly endorse testing a nuclear weapon. —Bruce Buena de Mesquita

Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by fergus on 2011-09-17.

• gwern estimated 15% on 2010-08-09
• gwern said “http://wrongtomorrow.com/prediction/id/210 http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_predicts_iran_s_future.html ” on 2010-08-09
• gwern said “hard to judge this one. I’ll leave it until some sources turn up” on 2011-01-01
• kallman said “http://babulilmlibrary.com/news/ahmadinejad-only-backward%E2%80%99-politicians-think-of-atomic-bombsPres is definite anti, but any major faction…?” on 2011-01-21
• kallman said “http://babulilmlibrary.com/news/ahmadinejad-only-backward%E2%80%99-politicians-think-of-atomic-bombs sorry” on 2011-01-21
• gwern said “a good find, but the iranian president has to deny seeking the bomb in order to be consistent with their whole it’s-a-civilian-energy-project defense.” on 2011-01-22
• kallman said “Again though, it’s “publicly”, which I have to argue is a known yes. Wikigate isn’t public, nor has anything vis this shown up I think.” on 2011-01-24
• kallman said “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contents_of_the_United_States_diplomatic_cables_leak_%28Iran%29 seems to suggest pres. is equally left-wind behind closed doors.” on 2011-01-24
• fergus   judged this prediction right on 2011-09-17.