LSD microdosing experiment: pair 17: placebo then active?

Created by gwern on 2013-02-20; known on 2013-02-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-20.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2013-02-20
• gwern on 2013-02-20
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-02-20.