“This recession is going to last a lot longer than the one in the 1970s. I don't see any major bull move in commodities in the next several years.” —Bill Gary

Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2013-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-03-31.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2010-08-09
• gwern said “http://wrongtomorrow.com/prediction/id/211 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aijAsL7FtqA8 ” on 2010-08-09
• gimpf estimated 35% on 2010-12-13
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2011-03-31” on 2011-03-31
• gwern said “nm date change. made in 2009. anyone want to argue there were no commodities bubbles since? marking wrong” on 2011-03-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-03-31.