The population of Iowa will first vote on a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage in 2012; when they do, the vote will be a tossup. In 2013, the ban would fail. —Nate Silver

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.

• gwern estimated 50% on 2010-08-10
• gwern said “http://wrongtomorrow.com/prediction/id/170 http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/04/will-iowans-uphold-gay-marriage.html” on 2010-08-10
• gwern changed their prediction from “The population of Iowa will first vote on a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage in 2012; when they do, the vote will be a tossup. In 2013, the ban would fail.” on 2010-08-10
• gwern said “I intend to judge this as correct if there is a 2011 attempt and success; 2012, either way; 2013, failure; no attempt, success.” on 2010-08-10
• gwern said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Same-sex_marriage_in_Iowa no attempts; marking wrong” on 2013-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-12-31.