The model predicts that by 2012, almost half of the 50 states would vote against a marriage ban, including several states that had previously voted to ban it. —Nate Silver

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-31

• gwern estimated 60% on 2010-08-10
• gwern said “http://wrongtomorrow.com/prediction/id/174 http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/04/will-iowans-uphold-gay-marriage.html ” on 2010-08-10
• kallman estimated 50% and said “Gay marriage, I’m assuming? All the power to them.” on 2010-11-23
• gimpf estimated 40% on 2010-12-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 40% on 2011-01-01
• Eunseo estimated 43% on 2011-05-30
• JoshuaZ said “Er, is something wrong with the system? It is showing this as known today, but it isn’t 2012 yet. ” on 2011-05-31
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2011-05-31” on 2011-06-01
• gwern said “I think I just put in a wrong date originally; edited it.” on 2011-06-01
• JoshuaZ said “http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/13/n-c-senate-approves-putting-same-sex-marriage-amendment-on-2012-ballot/?hpt=hp_t2 and other recent events make this seem unlikely. ” on 2011-09-14
• Anubhav estimated 40% on 2011-10-12
• chemotaxis101 estimated 40% on 2012-01-28
• gwern said “realized this isn’t actually opertaionalized; withdrawing” on 2012-02-02
• gwern withdrew the prediction on 2012-02-02