“For all practical purposes, the Mexican state won’t survive to see 2012.” —Jeff Vail

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2010-08-10
• gwern said “the drugrunners don’t want Mexico to collapse; like a parasite doesn’t want the host to die. Mexico failing means US might step in.” on 2010-08-10
• gwern said “http://wrongtomorrow.com/prediction/id/129 http://www.jeffvail.net/2009/03/mexico-collapse-update.html” on 2010-08-10
• gimpf estimated 1% on 2010-12-12
• Larks estimated 3% on 2011-01-01
• Artis estimated 25% on 2011-11-07
• PseudonymousUser estimated 3% on 2011-11-07
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2011-11-07
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.