“In five years, oil will be uncompetitive with biofuel, even at $50 per barrel, though oil will take longer to decline in price.” —Vinod Khosla

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2014-04-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-04-04.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2010-08-10
• gwern said “http://wrongtomorrow.com/prediction/id/140 http://www.cleanfleetreport.com/alt-fuels/biofuels-alt-fuels/biofuel-innovators-with-alternatives-to-oil/ ” on 2010-08-10
• gwern said “Interpreting this as biofuel equivalent of barrel of oil is <50$. Sounds pretty unlikely to me.” on 2010-08-10
• kallman estimated 5% and said “Oil has great energy density, making it awfully hard to match, nevermind exceed.” on 2010-11-23
• gimpf estimated 5% and said “biofuel lower <50$ — unlikely. @kallman: it’s not about energy-density.” on 2010-12-13
• jkadlubo estimated 1% on 2014-03-02
• reubensandwich estimated 5% on 2014-03-20
• reubensandwich estimated 100% and said “whoops didn’t see date of prediction” on 2014-03-20
• reubensandwich estimated 0% and said “well this isn’t going well for me” on 2014-03-20
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-04-04.