Android will be the dominant smartphone platform by the end of 2012. The market share, as determined by number of devices, will be greater for Android smartphones than Blackberry, Symbian, iOS (iPhone), or any platforms not yet launched.

Created by blanu on 2010-08-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.

• blanu estimated 75% on 2010-08-10
• gwern estimated 70% and said “2 years seems pretty reasonable to go from 10-20% to 50%.” on 2010-08-11
• blanu said “Largest market share could be less than 50% if there is market fragmentation. RIM is currently #1 with 40% or so.” on 2010-08-11
• blanu said “My mistake, Symbian is 41%, Blackberry 18%, Android 17% in Q2 2010.Source: http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1421013” on 2010-08-12
• Emanuel Rylke estimated 90% on 2011-10-09
• gwern said “http://www.dailytech.com/Android+Gobbles+RIMs+Market+Share+is+on+Nearly+Half+of+US+Smartphones/article22938.htm says android is at 43%, and nearest competitor is apple at 28%; not a majority, but android has more than any other, so marking right” on 2011-10-09
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-10-09.
• Jayson Virissimo   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-10-10.
• gwern said “‘Gartner’s November mobile device report: Android OS leads the pack with a 52.5 percent global market share, just about double the 25 percent it had last summer.’ http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2011/11/android-dominates-q3-2011/” on 2011-11-15
• Emanuel Rylke   judged this prediction right on 2013-01-01.