“the entire north polar ice cap may well be completely gone in five years.” —Al Gore

Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-04-01.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2010-08-11
• gwern said “http://wrongtomorrow.com/prediction/id/85 http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/14/gore-entire-north-polar-ice-cap-will-be-gone-in-5-years/ ” on 2010-08-11
• Traubert estimated 20% on 2010-08-11
• gimpf estimated 10% on 2010-12-12
• fela estimated 1% on 2014-01-04
• waveman estimated 10% and said “Gore is a politician. That is, a person who lies for a living. Global warming is a real serious problem but Al is not a reliable source. ” on 2014-01-05
• Snowshi estimated 45% on 2014-01-20
• JamieDuerden estimated 1% and said “Unless this spring is phenomenally hot, the 9000km^3 of ice currently occupying the Arctic ocean will not be reduced to nothing by the first of April.” on 2014-01-21
• Rowan93 estimated 2% on 2014-01-24
• Esuba estimated 0% on 2014-01-24
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2014-02-05
• solipsist estimated 0% and said “Assuming 0 means you expect to be wrong less than 1/200 times” on 2014-02-27
• jkadlubo estimated 1% on 2014-03-02
• waveman   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-04-01.