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Silk Road: there will have been a bust (>10 named defendants) related to forged IDs eg. driver's licenses, linked to the SR vendor KingOfClubs

Created by gwern on 2013-02-25; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-31.

  • gwern estimated 30% on 2013-02-25
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 40% on 2013-02-26
  • gwern estimated 20% and said “downgrading based on further infoon 2013-03-06
  • gwern said “an interesting tidbit: the SR indictment claims DPR was found in part by ordering a batch of fake IDs. from KoC…?on 2013-10-02
  • gwern said “KoC did sell those IDs! but unclear whether they caused the bust, and how many were busted as a result: Ulbricht, and 3 staffers, but that’s still <10…on 2014-12-16
  • gwern said “no additional KoC-related arrests surfaced during trial; anyone disagree with marking wrong?on 2015-02-04
  • JoshuaZ said “Agree with marking wrong. on 2015-02-04
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-31.