Silk Road: there will have been a bust (>10 named defendants) related to forged IDs eg. driver's licenses, linked to the SR vendor KingOfClubs
Created by gwern on 2013-02-25; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-31.
- gwern estimated 30% on 2013-02-25
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 40% on 2013-02-26
- gwern estimated 20% and said “downgrading based on further info” on 2013-03-06
- gwern said “an interesting tidbit: the SR indictment claims DPR was found in part by ordering a batch of fake IDs. from KoC…?” on 2013-10-02
- gwern said “KoC did sell those IDs! http://antilop.cc/sr/files/2014_12_09_ULBRICHT_motions_in_limine.pdf but unclear whether they caused the bust, and how many were busted as a result: Ulbricht, and 3 staffers, but that’s still <10…” on 2014-12-16
- gwern said “no additional KoC-related arrests surfaced during trial; anyone disagree with marking wrong?” on 2015-02-04
- JoshuaZ said “Agree with marking wrong. ” on 2015-02-04
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-31.
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