feds take down silk road within a year ,from a undercover agent selling ids and monitoring emails

Created by ledzep6551 on 2013-02-26; known on 2013-07-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-07-31.

• ledzep6551 estimated 85% on 2013-02-26
• ledzep6551 estimated 85% and said “stay clear of silk road full of feds …….” on 2013-02-26
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 15% on 2013-02-26
• Tuxedage estimated 1% on 2013-02-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% and said “Conjunction fallacy- specifics about take down method. ” on 2013-02-27
• gwern said “see also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/16142” on 2013-02-27
• ChristianKl estimated 10% on 2013-03-05
• Ben Doherty estimated 20% on 2013-03-08
• Qiaochu estimated 10% and said “Agree with JoshuaZ. ” on 2013-03-13
• daffodilian estimated 20% and said “Think it will happen eventually but it will take longer than a year and an alternative would have popped up in the meantime. ” on 2013-03-13
• gwern said “daffodilian, there’s already at least one competitor, Black Market Reloaded; there are 1 or 2 russian sites operating too” on 2013-03-13
• ShIxtan estimated 5% on 2013-04-30
• Qiaochu   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-07-31.
• ledzep6551 said “We all know now selling ID’S is the perfect setup for the Feds so just give it time!!!!!!!” on 2013-07-31
• gwern said “fwiw, no emails seem to have been involved, and it’s very unclear from the indictments whether the ids were being sold by an undercover agent or even important to the case compared to the undercover agent doing the MD hit” on 2013-10-06